Mortgage applications are beginning to rise, however existing home sales are lackluster. The number of homes available for sale is decreasing which is a positive indication that the market is stabilizing. The 16% drop in mortgage activity for the first half of 2006 was heavily influenced by non-traditional loans. Strong demand for interest only options was an influence.
The Federal Reserve FOMC (federal open market comittee) meeting left interest rates unchanged at their meeting Tuesday, October 26, 2006. Not withstanding Lehman Brothers prediction that the Fed will have to tighten by at least another quarter point to stem inflation pressures, Federal funds futures give no indication of any coming rate hike or cut for the next several meeting. The cooling of the housing market was indicated a prime factor in the no change vote.
On the defensive side, one of the largest mortgage lenders is cutting 2,500 jobs to weather out the housing slump. Hoping to save $500 million, Countrywide is cutting down its labor force.
However, the second home market has seen activity with the baby boomers. A recent survey shows future growth in second homes due to the sheer size of the baby boom generation.
Further housing weakness will be triggered by a credit crunch was predicted by UCLA Anderson Forecast in a recent Investment Business Daily article.
UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted growth to rise and a fed funds rate to 4.5% from 5.25% and they see at least two, if not three, Fed rate cuts keeping economic growth this year in positive territory. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon.
With a 8 1/2 month backlog of housing inventory, a drop in mortgage interest rates would rev up a few engines. The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose 0.7%, a gain that came despite bad weather and the impact from subprime mortgage problems.
Mortgage rates have remaind stable due to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates. The pre-owned single family home sales market is soft this seaon. Subprime lending and adjustable rate market find many battling foreclosure because of greed for home ownership and premium interest rates. Consumers with poor credit and financial flaws put themselves and their banks in risk.
Prices are going raising as the cost of living goes up. Property values shrinking, wages and the job market is still decent. The burden of local, state and the federal government are spending money like drunken sailors and it's only the American fighting attitude that keeps the working guy/gal able to continue. We all know that consumer inflation is far higher than the 2.1 percent official CPI inflation rate. Politicians are “cooking” the books. Eventually the markets will self-correct, but will we ever get spend-thrift politicians?
Property taxes take a beating supporting early retiring government employees. Senior employees are good for government providing they can do the job. With much of the government unionized in an archaic form, it is difficult to terminate or sideline an employee. Unlike a construction unions, where, if the worker is undesirable, the contracting firm can fire that employee. If that union member has issues that make him or her undesirable, that person simply does not get hired.
Reforming government unions should be high on the list of taxpayer reforms. A new competitive union needs to rise similar to that of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters for government employees. Benefits would accrue to the workers and hiring and firing decisions would originate with the government employer. Employees would be terminated as workplace changes dictate without penalty to the employer. Those hired would be on an as needed basis. Tenure would be replace by an apprentice program.
It is either that or some entrepreneur needs to step up to the plate and fashion a skilled workers program (similar to Manpower or other outside contracting agencies) to outsource jobs for all the categories of government workers. Naturally a mega agency would be too ambitious a start, but basic services could be outsourced.
Pressure needs to be put on government unions to reform or be replaced. Government is getting too expensive. Cost cutting reforms without cutting service has simple solutions but entail lots of political wrangling.
If employees work longer it give local, state or federal governments the benefit for having to pay fewer years of retirement. Considering many retire after 20-years service at 70% pay, the financial drain on taxpayers is enormous.
Taxpayers could get almost double the bang for the same dollar by insisting local, state or federal employees reach 65 years of age or work 40-years before they are eligible for retirement. That would put them on par with the majority of working Americans. There is no reason to treat government employees as a privileged class.
“The world is a dangerous place to live – not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it.” – Albert Einstein, scientist
Apply a property tax guide to any home or property: Get the right values and plug in the figures for your house. Don't get stuck on the learning curve scratching you head what to do next. Eliminate mistakes in property taxes and property tax appeals.
American are a little less upbeat about economic prospects . Event the Economic Optimism Indes fell 2.2 points to 53.5 for the week. 50 is neutral, so we are still in the good news range.
In response to the increasingly slow housing market, mortgage companies are adjusting their businesses and layoffs are increasing.
Interestingly, according to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales, finishing the third-best year on record, are projected for 2006 at 6.47 million, a decline of 8.6 percent. In 2007, they’re expected to rise steadily from the current cyclical low and reach an annual total of 6.40 million, which would be 1.0 percent lower than this year’s total.
Also worth noting, Congress recently passed a new tax deduction that allows low- and moderate-income homebuyers to deduct mortgage insurance premiums from their federal taxes if they make less than $100,000.
The Student Loan Program works by participating banks in the Federal Family Education Loan Program guaranteeing a return that is 2.34 percentage points over the market rate on commercial paper to banks. It’s a sweet deal for banks.
Student loans are risky loans, but not for banks. When the student defaults, the government reimburses lenders for up to 98% of the principal and accrued interest.
New federal student loan originators totaled $69 billion in the 2005 – 2006 school year. First year projections for the US just to send a rocket to the moon in order to build a base are estimated to run over $104 billion. That expense is projected to increase with construction and re-supply shipments.
Enter alter reality
Privately built and financed, SpaceShipOne Wins $10 Million Ansari X Prize in Historic 2nd Trip to Space (The Ansari X Prize is a $10 million purse for the first privately built vehicle that could safely haul a pilot and the equivalent weight of two passengers to the edge of space — then repeat the feat within two weeks.)
SpaceShipOne technology is currently owned by a Paul Allen company called Mojave Aerospace Ventures (MAV). Allen is a Microsoft co-founder and for $20 million, bankrolled the design and building of SpaceShipOne.
Instead of wasting fuel to send up tons of metal into the stratosphere, they simply sent an airplane to the stratosphere, pulled a lever that tilted back the wings and lit the rocket fuse that propelled it into outer space; simple, energy efficient. That leaves NASA’s government bureaucracy bogged down with expensive antiques and primitive concepts funded by taxpayers paychecks.
Enter Sir Richard Branson and his Virgin Galactic Enterprise – SpaceshipOne. Virgin Galactic is the world’s first off-the-planet private airline. Business plan: 50 passengers a month for space flight, paying $190,000 each. Core product: a two-hour flight beyond Earth’s atmosphere, wrapped in a three- day astronaut experience. Time frame: 2009.
Private enterprise will insure commercial space flights that will let ordinary individuals go into outer space with resorts projected showing up in about 25 years. Lunar resorts? You bet, they'll be no vacancy rate until the next ship.
NASA could be disbanded and scarce money be spent on a free US education for anyone that wants it.
