A Harvard study show a more upbeat view of the current housing market value correction than offered by most economists. All hinges on the course of employment growth and interest rates. The run up in housing demand over the years is buoyed by the huge increase of immigrants and their children and relatives. That trend should continue for the foreseeable future.
Both political parties are paper tigers when it comes to immigration reform. The situation is not like it was with most 2nd generation immigrants parents who had to go through strict Ellis Island immigration standards.
The number of foreclosed home returning to the market is having an effect on builders and investors. Home market values should continue a downward trend as the growing problem of affordability strengthens. The downward pressure on wages due to the large influx of immigrants is taking its toll. High housing cost and non-housing expenses leaves home ownership on a slippery slope.
Mortgage applications are beginning to rise, however existing home sales are lackluster. The number of homes available for sale is decreasing which is a positive indication that the market is stabilizing. The 16% drop in mortgage activity for the first half of 2006 was heavily influenced by non-traditional loans. Strong demand for interest only options was an influence.
The Federal Reserve FOMC (federal open market comittee) meeting left interest rates unchanged at their meeting Tuesday, October 26, 2006. Not withstanding Lehman Brothers prediction that the Fed will have to tighten by at least another quarter point to stem inflation pressures, Federal funds futures give no indication of any coming rate hike or cut for the next several meeting. The cooling of the housing market was indicated a prime factor in the no change vote.
On the defensive side, one of the largest mortgage lenders is cutting 2,500 jobs to weather out the housing slump. Hoping to save $500 million, Countrywide is cutting down its labor force.
However, the second home market has seen activity with the baby boomers. A recent survey shows future growth in second homes due to the sheer size of the baby boom generation.
