Mortgage applications rose 3.2% in the week ending February 23 and were up 8.8% vs. the same week last year according to Mortgage Bankers Association. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate loans fell to a 7-week low of 6.16%.
Mortgage rates fall once again as the 30- year fixed-rate mortgage rates move down. Rates have fallen for the 10 of the last 11 weeks according to Freddie Mac.
The 5-year adjustable mortgage stayed at 6%. The 1-year ARM averaged 5.46%, which is a 6-month low.
Notwithstanding, mortgage application index soared to its highest level since January. The activity shot up 17% according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Meanwhile, job growth is seen as sluggish even as jobless claims fall for the 4th drop in five weeks. Private employers added 78,000 jobs in September. U.S. factory orders were flat in August and CEO’s are gloomy on future of the economy. The Business Council and Conference Board said that 45.6 % of the CEO’s polled expect the economy to worsen over the next 6 months.
The mortgage activity rate sank 5.5% in the week ending October 6, 20006. This all after surging to a 9 month high in the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates shot up this week which probably dampened demand.
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Forecasts imply that even if there is a housing recovery, home prices will raise very much. The national median existing home price is making an annual decline. Dampening demand, the national inventory of unsold homes now stands at 7.4 months. A year ago the supply was 4.5 months. Home sellers need to trim prices further as incentive to buyers. The prevailing buyers market is alarmingly close to making the statistic of the first time since the Great Depression that there was a annual national median home price decline.
Mortgage risks are compounding the problems. The Center of Responsible Lending said that 2.2 million subprime home loans have failed or will end in foreclosure. The report said that 19% of subprime mortgages originated in the past two years will end in foreclosure. That is almost one in five subprime loans.
Most loans are not subprime. The MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington DC) says that recent foreclosure data indicates a 1.05% foreclosure rate with a 3.86 percent jump for subprime loans.
Some agency is twisting the truth. Nevertheless, a home for most families is the greatest financial asset a family has and losing it has a huge impact.
Further housing weakness will be triggered by a credit crunch was predicted by UCLA Anderson Forecast in a recent Investment Business Daily article.
UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted growth to rise and a fed funds rate to 4.5% from 5.25% and they see at least two, if not three, Fed rate cuts keeping economic growth this year in positive territory. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon.
With a 8 1/2 month backlog of housing inventory, a drop in mortgage interest rates would rev up a few engines. The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose 0.7%, a gain that came despite bad weather and the impact from subprime mortgage problems.
American are a little less upbeat about economic prospects . Event the Economic Optimism Indes fell 2.2 points to 53.5 for the week. 50 is neutral, so we are still in the good news range.
In response to the increasingly slow housing market, mortgage companies are adjusting their businesses and layoffs are increasing.
Interestingly, according to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales, finishing the third-best year on record, are projected for 2006 at 6.47 million, a decline of 8.6 percent. In 2007, they’re expected to rise steadily from the current cyclical low and reach an annual total of 6.40 million, which would be 1.0 percent lower than this year’s total.
Also worth noting, Congress recently passed a new tax deduction that allows low- and moderate-income homebuyers to deduct mortgage insurance premiums from their federal taxes if they make less than $100,000.
