The monthly decline was the sharpest in 13 years showing continued weakness in the unsteady housing sector
According to the Commerce Department new single-family home sales fell to an annualized rate of 937,000 units from an upwardly revised rate of 1.123 million units in December of 2006.
In the Northeast, new home sales fell 18.7 percent while they decreased 8.1 percent in the Midwest and 9.7 percent in the South. The West saw the sharpest decline in new home sales with a 37.4 percent drop.
“Mortgage borrowers continue to refinance their mortgages at a higher frequency than historically would have occurred given the rise in mortgage rates over this year,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.
“But the wide proliferation of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) originated in the past few years that are nearing their first interest-rate adjustment provides borrowers an incentive to refinance into a lower-cost ARM or fixed-rate mortgage. In addition, borrowers who might have considered a prime rate home equity loan for a home improvement or other need are turning to cash-out refinance options now that the prime rate is above 8 percent.
The Cash-Out Refinance Report also revealed that properties refinanced during the third quarter of 2006 experienced a median house-price appreciation of 33 percent during the time since the original loan was made, down from a revised 34 percent in second quarter 2006. For loans refinanced in the third quarter of 2006, the median age of the original loan was 3.4 years, about two months older than the median age of loans refinanced during the second quarter of 2006.
- http://originatortimes.com
Further housing weakness will be triggered by a credit crunch was predicted by UCLA Anderson Forecast in a recent Investment Business Daily article.
UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted growth to rise and a fed funds rate to 4.5% from 5.25% and they see at least two, if not three, Fed rate cuts keeping economic growth this year in positive territory. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon.
With a 8 1/2 month backlog of housing inventory, a drop in mortgage interest rates would rev up a few engines. The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose 0.7%, a gain that came despite bad weather and the impact from subprime mortgage problems.
American are a little less upbeat about economic prospects . Event the Economic Optimism Indes fell 2.2 points to 53.5 for the week. 50 is neutral, so we are still in the good news range.
In response to the increasingly slow housing market, mortgage companies are adjusting their businesses and layoffs are increasing.
Interestingly, according to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales, finishing the third-best year on record, are projected for 2006 at 6.47 million, a decline of 8.6 percent. In 2007, they’re expected to rise steadily from the current cyclical low and reach an annual total of 6.40 million, which would be 1.0 percent lower than this year’s total.
Also worth noting, Congress recently passed a new tax deduction that allows low- and moderate-income homebuyers to deduct mortgage insurance premiums from their federal taxes if they make less than $100,000.
Forecasts imply that even if there is a housing recovery, home prices will raise very much. The national median existing home price is making an annual decline. Dampening demand, the national inventory of unsold homes now stands at 7.4 months. A year ago the supply was 4.5 months. Home sellers need to trim prices further as incentive to buyers. The prevailing buyers market is alarmingly close to making the statistic of the first time since the Great Depression that there was a annual national median home price decline.
Mortgage risks are compounding the problems. The Center of Responsible Lending said that 2.2 million subprime home loans have failed or will end in foreclosure. The report said that 19% of subprime mortgages originated in the past two years will end in foreclosure. That is almost one in five subprime loans.
Most loans are not subprime. The MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington DC) says that recent foreclosure data indicates a 1.05% foreclosure rate with a 3.86 percent jump for subprime loans.
Some agency is twisting the truth. Nevertheless, a home for most families is the greatest financial asset a family has and losing it has a huge impact.
Mortgage applications rose 3.2% in the week ending February 23 and were up 8.8% vs. the same week last year according to Mortgage Bankers Association. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate loans fell to a 7-week low of 6.16%.
