Existing home sales are dropping sales at the fastest pace in 18 years. New home sales have improved slightly. The good news is the mortgage rates have dropped for the time being. Naturally, all hinges on the inflation fears and the perceived direction prices are going when the Federal Reserve eyeballs them. The sub-prime problems hurt the lender as much as the borrowers being the mortgage companies have to find a buyer to recoup their investment.
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Mortgage applications are beginning to rise, however existing home sales are lackluster. The number of homes available for sale is decreasing which is a positive indication that the market is stabilizing. The 16% drop in mortgage activity for the first half of 2006 was heavily influenced by non-traditional loans. Strong demand for interest only options was an influence.
The Federal Reserve FOMC (federal open market comittee) meeting left interest rates unchanged at their meeting Tuesday, October 26, 2006. Not withstanding Lehman Brothers prediction that the Fed will have to tighten by at least another quarter point to stem inflation pressures, Federal funds futures give no indication of any coming rate hike or cut for the next several meeting. The cooling of the housing market was indicated a prime factor in the no change vote.
On the defensive side, one of the largest mortgage lenders is cutting 2,500 jobs to weather out the housing slump. Hoping to save $500 million, Countrywide is cutting down its labor force.
However, the second home market has seen activity with the baby boomers. A recent survey shows future growth in second homes due to the sheer size of the baby boom generation.
Nationwide, one in every 92 households is in foreclosure with Nevada having the highest foreclosure rate! According to RealtyTrac, more than 1.2 million foreclosure fillings were reported in the U.S. last year. Foreclosures could rise as some 1.5 trillion in adjustable-rage mortgage get repriced this year. Couple that with declining home prices and increase property taxes and one can be whistling some sour notes.
Home prices fell in 17 out of 20 cities in November compared with October 2006 data according to a recent MacroMarkets and Standard and Poors report. Although home prices in some cities did rise, nation wide there is no sign of the downtrend in real estate prices slowing down.
Property tax rates continue to skyrocket in many areas because of weak-kneed elected officials not reigning in expenses or living within town budgets. Many municipalities are soft on curbing excesses or cutting budgets. Rising property tax payments make many homeowners budgets too tight and they are not able to keep up.
Many banks have promoted hybrid and adjustable mortgage loans some with no and others with low down payments. With delinquent mortgage payments and foreclosures far above year-ago levels, indications are that hard financial times are gaining on many. Ballooning interest rates often surprise those who hold an adjustable-rate or sub-prime mortgage and when it is time to refinance, many are left with no option but foreclosure.
Some banks were, in some cases, even selling houses and forgiving debt. Do some of these banks feel some culpability for some creative loans they have saddled the homebuyer with? If they studied their customers' financial profile, they might never have made those loans. Do these banks fear scrutiny given the strong likelihood that their customers mortgage interest rate would be higher and unaffordable upon the refinance period? It's not unreasonable to expect mortgage rates to return to that double-digit territory as the economy cycles through a downturn.
A hybrid mortgage may be an appropriate choice if one plans to live in their house only for three or four more years. The first years of a hybrid loan are generally charged at a lower rate than traditional fixed-rate loans and if one plans to move and sell the home in a few years, it makes sense. If, for some reason, one don’t sell the home, they’re gambling using any form of a hybrid mortgage loan since it converts to an adjustable rate.
Hard times and rising payments make for tight budgets. If one wants predictability and the security of paying the same interest rate for the life of the loan, a fixed-rate mortgage is the smart choice. Rates are still low, by historical comparisons and given many economic forecasts of a weaker dollar and predictions for higher interest rates, locking in a fixed rate will reward one with peace of mind.
One of the largely unreported white collar crimes in the mortgage business is that loan officers inflate the income of marginal buyers so they are approved to buy a home they can not possibly qualify for.
Greed on the part of the buyer for supposedly inflated home valuation and greed on part of the mortgage lender for a juicy commission. The bank regulators looked the other way, the mortgage higher ups tacitly approved the practice and now with a declining real estate market buyers are bailing out in droves. Foreclosures are rampant.
Unsuspecting investors buy these mortgage obligations from brokers assuming they bought a sound investment. For instance Goldman Sachs , one of the top sellers of C.M.O.’s (collateral mortgage obligations) for the past few years sold about $100 billion to unsuspecting investors.
With the real estate decline, the bubble popped and everyone is looking for a scapegoat.
The real cause is the mortgage scams and lack of enforcement in inflating mortgage applications at the entry level. With the interest only mortgage obligations, greed on part of all parties involved perpetuated the fiasco.
A Harvard study show a more upbeat view of the current housing market value correction than offered by most economists. All hinges on the course of employment growth and interest rates. The run up in housing demand over the years is buoyed by the huge increase of immigrants and their children and relatives. That trend should continue for the foreseeable future.
Both political parties are paper tigers when it comes to immigration reform. The situation is not like it was with most 2nd generation immigrants parents who had to go through strict Ellis Island immigration standards.
The number of foreclosed home returning to the market is having an effect on builders and investors. Home market values should continue a downward trend as the growing problem of affordability strengthens. The downward pressure on wages due to the large influx of immigrants is taking its toll. High housing cost and non-housing expenses leaves home ownership on a slippery slope.
Mortgage rates have remaind stable due to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates. The pre-owned single family home sales market is soft this seaon. Subprime lending and adjustable rate market find many battling foreclosure because of greed for home ownership and premium interest rates. Consumers with poor credit and financial flaws put themselves and their banks in risk.
Prices are going raising as the cost of living goes up. Property values shrinking, wages and the job market is still decent. The burden of local, state and the federal government are spending money like drunken sailors and it's only the American fighting attitude that keeps the working guy/gal able to continue. We all know that consumer inflation is far higher than the 2.1 percent official CPI inflation rate. Politicians are “cooking” the books. Eventually the markets will self-correct, but will we ever get spend-thrift politicians?
