A 3% drop in weekly mortgage applications apparently attributed to a slight rise in interest rates. Long-term rates rose as mirrored by the index increasing to 570.8 in the week ending October 27 from the prior week. The average 30-year rate hit 6.36 percent October 20 as compared to a 6.18% rate in mid September.
Further housing weakness will be triggered by a credit crunch was predicted by UCLA Anderson Forecast in a recent Investment Business Daily article.
UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted growth to rise and a fed funds rate to 4.5% from 5.25% and they see at least two, if not three, Fed rate cuts keeping economic growth this year in positive territory. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon.
With a 8 1/2 month backlog of housing inventory, a drop in mortgage interest rates would rev up a few engines. The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose 0.7%, a gain that came despite bad weather and the impact from subprime mortgage problems.
Mortgage applications rose 3.2% in the week ending February 23 and were up 8.8% vs. the same week last year according to Mortgage Bankers Association. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate loans fell to a 7-week low of 6.16%.
Unsold home inventory shot up 5.9% in February to 3.75 million while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.16% in February according to Freddie Mac.
Existing-home sales 3.9% rise in sales for February. It would take 6.7 months to sell off the excess inventory of homes at the current real estate sales pace.
Subprime woes have left the housing industry in an adjustment phase with borrowers with poor credit defaulting on mortgage loans. Estimates suggest it will cut housing demand by 100,000 to 200,000 units annually.
Good news for those applying for mortgages. Mortgage rates sunk to 6.18% with the benchmark 3-year fixed rate mortgage indicator, ending November 22. The rate had been 6.24% one week earlier and a year ago it stood at 6.8%.
Applications for new home buyers slid 2.8% and applications for all mortgages fell 3.7% for the week of November 17th.
The mortgage activity rate sank 5.5% in the week ending October 6, 20006. This all after surging to a 9 month high in the prior week according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage rates shot up this week which probably dampened demand.
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